BuildFax Data Shows Commercial, Residential Construction Trending Downward
New trends suggest potential market slowdown.
The BuildFax Housing Health Report for November found that the year-over-year rate of single-family housing authorizations, maintenance and remodeling have all decreased. This is the first time since 2011 that all three categories have decreased in the same month, pointing to a potential market slowdown on the horizon. The report, which leverages U.S. property condition and history data to deliver macroeconomic as well as more granular trends, also reveals that eight of the last 10 instances of blanket declines occurred during the recession and its recovery in 2008 and 2009.
Housing Supply by Volume
- Single-family housing authorizations decreased by 0.86 percent year over year.
- Maintenance volume decreased by 5.85 percent year over year.
- Remodel volume decreased by 12 percent year over year.
“More so now than in years prior, the compounding effects of natural disasters, scarcity in the construction labor market and recent tariffs have impacted housing growth – not to mention systemic factors, like rising mortgage rates, that influence consumer behavior,” said BuildFax COO Jonathan Kanarek. “While it’s natural to see some leveling off after steep growth, the next few months will be telling; whether a downturn is on the horizon or the market is simply softening is yet to be seen.”
The report also looked at commercial construction, which shows decreases this month are in line with similar residential declines. However, commercial construction over the last five years has seen steady increases, primarily in construction spend. In fact, BuildFax data suggests there are disproportional increases between construction cost and volume, which point to a labor shortage in the market.