Corelogic: Hurricane Michael Wind and Storm Surge Cause An Estimated $3 Billion to $5 Billion in Losses
CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today announced updated residential and commercial storm surge and wind loss estimates for Hurricane Michael. According to this new data analysis, the wind losses for residential and commercial properties in Florida are expected to be between $2 billion and $3 billion and the storm surge losses, including losses covered by National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), are expected to be an additional $0.5 billion to $1 billion. Our analysis accounts for insured losses.
The post-landfall estimates below have been updated based on the October 11,11:00 a.m. EDT National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory of the storm. At this time, it is unlikely that inland flooding will be a major contributor to loss totals, but CoreLogic will continue to evaluate this as the storm unfolds. This analysis includes residential homes and commercial properties, including contents and business interruption and does not include broader economic loss from the storm.
The table above shows the estimates for commercial and residential insured property losses by state.
As Michael moved over land, it weakened, so some counties won’t have experienced the full impact of a landfalling Category 4 hurricane. This is represented in the table above as zero values. Certain counties will experience multiple categories of storm intensities because the properties closer to the coast are likely to experience stronger winds relative to the more inland properties within a county or CBSA. In particular, it is expected that states other than Alabama, Florida, and Georgia will not exceed tropical storm force winds based on the projected track and is therefore not included in the table. Additionally, regions in Florida where the impacted homes are outside of metropolitan areas are represented in the table as “Other.” Similarly, in Alabama and Georgia, regions where the damage is widespread but not concentrated in a specific area are represented in the table as “Statewide.”
For major Gulf and Atlantic Coast hurricanes that impact the U.S. this year, CoreLogic is planning on providing pre-landfall data for the number and associated reconstruction cost value (RCV) of at-risk homes. For post-landfall data, CoreLogic plans to issue losses for wind and flood. Visit the CoreLogic natural hazard risk information center, Hazard HQ™, at www.hazardhq.com to get access to the most up-to-date Hurricane Michael storm data and see reports from previous storms.
The CoreLogic North Atlantic Hurricane Model includes improved location risk and estimation through its robust stochastic event set, high-resolution hazard modeling, component-level vulnerability, and usage of PxPoint™, the structure- and parcel-level geocoding engine. With detailed and rigorously validated model outputs, the model provides the ability to calculate damage contributions from wind and storm surge, providing a transparent way of looking at loss as well as to obtain a better understanding of capital adequacy for the separate or combined perils of hurricane winds and coastal storm surge flooding. The model offers a complete view of the risk for all perils and sub-perils. The North Atlantic Hurricane Model is updated biennially and has been certified by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) since the inception of the process in 1997.
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CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company's combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.